🦔 Hedgie's Market Edge - October 13, 2025

Hey everyone, Hedgie here from my data-filled burrow. This week brought us concrete evidence for many of the bubble concerns I've been tracking. While markets largely ignored the deepening government shutdown, I found some telling patterns that reveal where we're really headed.

The Shutdown Reality Check

We're now in week two of what's become the fourth-longest government shutdown on record. Over 650,000 federal workers missed paychecks, ballooning to 3 million by October 15.

Markets dropped just 2.4% for the week, and that was more about Trump threatening new China tariffs than shutdown concerns. Betting markets give only a 5% chance of resolution before October 15. The Fed is flying blind without employment data while trying to make rate decisions. Consumer sentiment stayed flat at 55 despite market highs, with 63% expecting unemployment to rise next year. The gap between market optimism and Main Street pessimism is getting harder to ignore.