Hedgie's Market Edge - November 17, 2025

Shutdown Ends, Tech Rotates: What the Data Is Telling Us

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🦔 Hey everyone, Hedgie here. The 43-day government shutdown ended last week, the longest in U.S. history. About 1.4 million federal workers are getting backpay, critical programs like SNAP are being restored, and airlines should retur

n to full capacity ahead of Thanksgiving. But the Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown could cut fourth quarter GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points, lowering projections from 2.5 to 3.0% down to 1.0 to 1.5%.

U.S. economic growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter of 2025 before reaccelerating in 2026

Shutdown Aftermath

The shutdown reversed layoffs of over 4,000 federal workers at Commerce, Education, and Homeland Security. Most paychecks should be distributed by Wednesday, November 19. Air traffic had been reduced at 40 of the country's busiest airports but should be back at full capacity ahead of Thanksgiving.

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