🦔 Hey everyone, Hedgie here. This was a bad week. Not "markets are volatile" bad. Actually bad. Let's get into it.
The Iran Situation Is Real
This chart shows that spikes in oil prices over the past 50 years have, at times, been associated with recessions
Last week I mentioned the strikes were coming. Now we're living with the consequences.
Oil spiked 36% this week. WTI crude went from the low $70s to $91. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Tankers are stacking up on both sides. Twenty percent of the world's seaborne oil moves through that chokepoint.
Trump says Khamenei is dead. Iran denies it. The IRGC fired missiles at US bases across the Gulf. Over 200 people killed in Iran including 64 students at a girls' school. Nobody knows where this goes next.
