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Hey everyone, Hedgie here. Let's get into it!
Fed Holds, Warsh Incoming
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% as expected, the first pause after three consecutive cuts at the end of 2025. The statement upgraded its assessment of the economy, noting solid expansion, resilient consumer spending, and growing business investment. Job gains "remained low" but the labor market showed "signs of stabilization." Inflation "remains somewhat elevated."
Two dissents: Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller both wanted a quarter-point cut. That disagreement tells you something about where the committee stands.
Headline and core PCE inflation remaining above Fed's 2% target, pace of disinflation slowing
Kevin Warsh was nominated to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Warsh served on the Fed Board from 2006-2011 and played a key role during the 2008 financial crisis. He's called for "regime change" at the Fed and believes the US is entering a period of higher productivity driven by AI and deregulation, which could support faster growth with contained inflation. He's likely more dovish than Powell on rates, but his influence is tempered by the Fed's structure. The chair gets one vote on a 12-member committee.
